MENA Newswire News Desk: Global merchandise trade showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2024 with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, according to the latest Global Trade Outlook report. The report anticipates moderate growth continuing through the end of the year and into 2025. This rebound follows a challenging 2023, marked by rising inflation and interest rates. According to the report, the volume of world merchandise trade is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and by 3.0% in 2025.
Global GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain stable at 2.7% for both years. As inflationary pressures ease, central banks in advanced economies are beginning to reduce interest rates, which could stimulate consumer spending, boost investment, and support a gradual recovery in global trade. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to persistent risks such as geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and unpredictable policy environments.
Despite these risks, the World Trade Organization (WTO) economists remain cautiously optimistic. This updated forecast aligns with the WTO’s earlier Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report from April 2024, which predicted a 2.6% growth rate for both global trade and GDP in 2024. For 2025, the forecast projects trade growth at 3.3% and GDP growth holding steady at 2.7%.
Regional export growth rates vary widely, with Asia expected to lead the way at 7.4%, followed by the Middle East at 4.7%, and South America at 4.6%. Other regions such as the CIS region, Africa, and North America are projected to experience more modest growth, while Europe is expected to see a decline of 1.4% in exports.
In terms of imports, the Middle East is predicted to lead with a 9.0% increase, followed by South America at 5.6% and Asia at 4.3%. North America is forecasted to see a 3.3% rise, while Africa and the CIS region are projected to grow more modestly at 1.0% and 1.1%, respectively. Europe is expected to experience a 2.3% decline in imports.